The growing ties between criminal and terrorist groups (often one and the same when it comes to Hezbollah's broad activity in Western and Central Africa) has been noted. The Congress authorized the creation of the new Africa Command (Africom) largely because of the terrorist threat in the region.
But what is the real threat? Again I return to the pipeline metaphor, and Africa is more and more frequently a important part of that pipeline structure.
Two cases illustrate this clearly. The first, an illegal alien smuggling ring running from Ghana through Central America to the United States was ideally positioned to carry anyone, including terrorists, across multiple borders.
The ring was run by a 26-year-old named Mohammed Kamel Ibrahim, living in Mexico and using the moniker "Silk the Shocker." For $5,000 he offered to have his clients met by corrupt Mexican officials and sent on to the United States.
What is astonishing is the number of countries through which this network moved people. Like water running downhill they simply took the path of least resistance at any given moment.
According to documents filed in the U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia, the smugglers had associates in Africa, typically corrupt officials. And they chose their routes based on which transit points employ easily bribed authorities.
Routes have included traveling from East Africa to Johannesburg, South Africa, and from Johannesburg to Sao Paulo, Brazil. East Africans also flew from Abu Dhabi, Dubai, or Rome to Bolivia, Brazil, Cuba, Mexico and Venezuela in 2007, according to the intelligence assessment. In addition, the smugglers have access to fake and real Belizean, Bolivian, Chilean, Mexican, Peruvian and South African visas.
The second is the case from earlier this month, of a bust of Hezbollah operators in Latin America, funneling hundreds of millions of dollars to use by the organization in Lebanon.
Again, the magnitude of the project is astounding.
The money ring that stretches through Venezuela, Panama, Guatemala, Hong Kong, the United States, Europe and Lebanon. The size of the network, the ability to function across religious and ethnic lines, and ability of all groups to profit from the criminal enterprise should give one pause.
Couple this with the Hezbollah and al Qaeda diamond operations, the booming drug trade in Guinea Bissau (and spreading now to Guinea, Ivory Coast, Ghana, Liberia, Sierra Leone) and you can see how important the region has become.
A recent Brookings Institution report on failed and failing states found that "Though only about one-third of the 141 developing
countries are in sub-Saharan Africa, 23 of the 28
critically weak states are in sub-Saharan African."
All this implies that, as enforcement improves elsewhere, the pipeline is simply rerouting itself to less controlled areas. It can happen quickly, empowering and absorbing new groups, shedding those that are no longer useful or pose too high a risk.
Such is the brave new world. New tentacles of existing pipelines grow almost overnight, or so it seems from the outside. In reality, it the result of the constant probing for the corrupt underbellies of countries around the world. Africa is, unfortunately, rising again.
Al Kassar and his accomplice, Luis Moreno Godoy were convicted in New York of conspiracy to murder U.S. nationals; conspiracy to murder U.S. officers and employees; conspiracy to acquire and export anti-aircraft missiles; conspiracy to provide material support and resources to the Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia (FARC), a designated foreign terrorist organization; and money laundering. The convictions represent the first time anyone has been charged with and convicted of the anti-aircraft missile statute.
Al Kassar, like Viktor Bout and others, are part of the shadowy world of facilitators that work across criminal and terrorist organizations, supplying them with what they need-from weapons to passports to money laundering services.
Successfully targeting these shadow facilitators hurts both groups and is one of the more effective ways of crippling the terrorist/criminal enterprises they empower.
As I wrote when he was arrested (and you can find the indictment and other articles here too), the arrest sprang from a sting operation by the Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA), to whom he thought he was selling surface-to-air missiles which he hoped would kill Americans. The US won al Kassar's extradition from Spain in order to stand trial in the United States.
It was the same template the DEA used to arrest Viktor Bout in Thailand. The conviction augers well for what would be a very similar case against Bout, if he ever gets here.
(It is not yet clear if he will. The lower court will rule around Christmas on whether he can be extradited, and that ruling can-and likely will be-appealed by either side. An appellate court then takes up the case, and has the final word.)
Not long before he was arrested, although he claimed to be retired, he was reportedly supplying weapons to the Baathist groups in Iraq.
Prior to that, (as I have written before) he armed Farah Aideed in Somalia, the Nicaraguan Contra rebels, and was close friends with Abu Abbas, the notorious PLF terrorist. As the Observer in London noted:
"The litany of allegations against him, even aside from his links to Abu Abbas, is jaw-dropping. Government files in various countries indicate that he was jailed in the UK on hashish charges in the 1970s, although he denies it.
"The official US Iran Contra report says he sold weapons to the ‘Enterprise’ arming the Contras. A UN report says he violated arms embargoes to Croatia and Somalia in 1992. A Swiss court froze and later released millions related to a multi-million-pound arms sale to Croatia. Documents in US court related to a Spanish inquiry indicate he has been investigated, but not prosecuted, on allegations of providing a silenced 9mm pistol used to shoot a suspected Israeli agent in 1984.
"He may have been involved in procuring components of a Chinese anti-ship missile for Iran, according to records cited by the Washington Post. He has been investigated in Argentina on charges of passport fraud. A report in the Library of Congress relays charges that he delivered explosives to a group headed by a known terrorist in Brazil, and that he had earlier sold arms to Iranian militias in Cyprus."
So, one down. Unfortunately, it took decades to get him, and there are many others stepping up. But his arrest saved lives and put a significant dent in an important transnational organization, as did Bout's. So, the bad guys don't always win.
The criminal-terrorist groups on the Somali coast (largely controlled by radical Islamists of the al-Shabaab group, a self-declared affiliate of al Qaeda central) have in essence declared themselves at war as a joint enterprise, against the rest of the world. Even the Saudis are angry enough to try to join international efforts to combat the groups fed by their own theological teachings.
These loose-knit groups now join the FARC in Colombia, the Taliban in Afghanistan/Pakistan and others as full-fledged terrorist-criminal enterprises that are the future. I have long warned that this threat will, unfortunately, have to be a tier-one priority for the incoming administration. These latest developments show just how dangerous it is to not deal with these issues in their infancy.
Unlike the FARC and Taliban, which rely on drugs, the Somali groups have used innovative thinking to generate their wealth. This too, is what we will see more and more of, as groups intersect along the terrorist-criminal pipeline and find overlapping interests and talents.
They took what was at hand, a vital artery in world commerce-including oil shipments-and found the weakness in the system, namely, a complete lack of protection of valuable cargo flowing past them.
The pirates, acting largely from economic motives, now hold a staggering amount of wealth in their hands. The operative concern has to be not only the criminal funds, but the use of these funds to arm and support radical Islamists. Al-Shabaab is likely to share the wealth, and we will see them suddenly armed with new, sophisticated weapons and communications as they move to finish off the weak and ineffective transitional government.
Already the hijackings are having a huge effect on commerce through one of the most obvious choke points in the world's shipping commerce.
As the Daily Telegraph notes, there may be a great deal more thought behind the hijackings than just money.
The pirates may have seen the Sirius Star as a ticket to a ransom in the tens of millions of pounds, but there is also the possibility that the seizure indicates more geo-strategic thinking among some factions in war-torn Somalia, which Western intelligence services have long seen as a safe haven for Islamist terror groups. For anyone bent on attacking the economies of the developed world, striking at the oil trade which fuels them would be a major opportunity.
For decades, when the strategically vital Strait of Malacca between Indonesia and Malaysia was the world's worst piracy hot spot, analysts warned of the risk of terrorists seizing a tanker and sinking it in the area's shallow waters. Blocking the artery through which a third of the world's seaborne trade passes would have dealt a huge blow to the world economy.
Crippling, even hampering, the global flow of crude oil, by forcing tankers to take longer routes and pushing up costs, could potentially have similar effects.
Even yesterday, a Norwegian shipping company, Odfjell, said it would no longer sail through the Gulf of Aden and would send its 92 vessels on detours of thousands of miles and several days around Africa and the Cape of Good Hope.
"The re-routing will entail extra sailing days and later cargo deliveries," said its chief executive Terje Storeng. "This will incur significant extra cost, but we expect our customers' support and contribution."
The tanker oil is worth $200 million, and pumping it into the sea could cause irreparable ecological harm. The Saudis are now now in talks with the hijackers.
In addition, the pirates are still holding ship loaded with Russian weapons, including tanks. They have grown increasingly more sophisticated, and increased their range of operations, apparently now using "mother ships" to ferry small speed boats far out to sea. This allows the pirates to attack ships before they reach the waters of the Gulf of Aden, where Russian and NATO ships now offer some protection. The Indian navy says it sank at least one "mother ship" last night.
That, in my opinion, is a vital step. This is not, in my opinion a soft power issue. There are legions of unemployed youth in a region where the state has failed miserably and on multiple occasions. They are attracted by the quick and relatively easy money of piracy. Fine.
But the only way to stop the current scourge is through the use of overwhelming force, sanctioned by the international community if possible. While the tanker cannot be sunk, the Ukranian ship with the Russian tanks can-and perhaps should be, if there is an attempt to offload them. That is harsh, but it would save hundreds, if not thousands, of lives by keeping the weapons out of the hands of killers.
And ending the pirate threat is vital not only end a criminal enterprise but to remove a key funding source from our enemies.
Now, it seems the jihadists have made an improbable comeback are again on the verge of taking power. How this has come to pass is a study in much of what is wrong with how counter-terrorism efforts are carried out in stateless areas.
As the Associated Press reports,the internationally recognized Transitional government, having been reinstalled in Mogadishu by the Ethiopians, acting at the behest of the United States and others less than two years ago, has again lost most of the national territory to the Islamists. This includes the major ports.
(The importance of these ports is shown by the Somali pirates, who have just hijacked a Saudi oil tanker with 2 million barrels of oil on board, and need to dock.)
Why? Because the Transitional government has been so bogged down with internal infighting over scarce resources and old, petty rivalries, that they did not bother to engage in the war. The Ethiopians are viewed as an occupying force, and the international community again completely dropped the ball on following through.
Fundamentally, the government, after years of exile and representing no one, failed to deliver the minimum necessary to generate any popular support, despite knowing what that Islamists represent. The international community could not or would not hold them accountable for the squandered aid and opportunities. Now the same group has audacity to ask for MORE help.
"You know what the situation is. Because of the endless disputes in government, the opposition groups have taken most of the country, including Elasha, which is 18 kilometers (11 miles) from the capital," (Transitional government president) Yusuf said in comments that received wide coverage on radio stations in Somalia.
Yusuf said his government only had control of the capital and the southwestern town of Baidoa, which is the seat of Parliament.
"Imagine how the country's future will be if al-Shabab takes (control of Somalia). It is really at risk," the president said, referring to one of the Islamic groups that has recently made significant territorial gains.
The spineless leaders can afford to engage in endless disputes because they can all move to Kenya again when the Islamists take over. But of Somalis are trapped in terrible position of being nominally ruled by a corrupt and incompetent government that does nothing for them, and a radical Islamist group that has already shown it can impose law and order and restore some semblance of safety-at a very high price.
When the Islamists took control last time, they cleaned up the capital, reopened the airport after 10 years and brought an end to the chaos on the roads. They also established sharia law, imposed curfews, beat women, carried out stoning and generally followed the lead of the Taliban in Afghanistan in trying to move the nation back to the 15th century.
Now, the Islamists are also divided into factions. One faction this weekend "publicly whipped 32 traditional dancers in the southern town of Balad because they said it is "Un-Islamic" for men and women to dance together." A taste of things to come.
If al Shabab, a youth militia linked to al Qaeda and adherents to radical Sunni-Wahhabist theology, take control, these forces will again have a place to train, study and operate from.
It is unlikely the United States and its allies will let that happen. The result will be chaos and suffering for the Somali people.
The only long-term solution is to have a government that people are willing to defend and fight for. The current transitional government is clearly not that. They are happy to squabble over the composition of the cabinet for months on end (largely from outside Somalia, in the comfort of hotels in Kenya) while their country burned.
Somalia is not unique, and other areas of the world, particularly in Africa (see the DRC and Zimbabwe now) will become attractive targets for Islamists, either as staging areas or areas to exploit for financial and training purposes. If we can't get Somalia right, we won't get these right either.
What is interesting, however, as noted by the Global Muslim Brotherhood Daily Report (free registration required) is that the designation does not directly touch Yousef al-Qaradawi, the head of the organization and the leading theologian for the Muslim Brotherhood. Here is his website where he is listed with the Union of Good president.
The reasons for the OFAC designation is stated as:
The leadership of Hamas created the Union of Good in late-2000, shortly after the start of the second Intifada, in order to facilitate the transfer of funds to Hamas. The Union of Good acts as a broker for Hamas by facilitating financial transfers between a web of charitable organizations-including several organizations previously designated under E.O. 13224 for providing support to Hamas-and Hamas-controlled organizations in the West Bank and Gaza. The primary purpose of this activity is to strengthen Hamas' political and military position in the West Bank and Gaza, including by: (i) diverting charitable donations to support Hamas members and the families of terrorist operatives; and (ii) dispensing social welfare and other charitable services on behalf of Hamas.
The designation describes some of the the relationship between some members of the Union and Hamas:
The Union of Good's executive leadership and board of directors includes Hamas leaders, Specially Designated Global Terrorists (SDGTs), and other terrorist supporters. The secretary general of the Union of Good, for example, also acts as the vice-chairman of the United Kingdom-based Interpal, which was designated in 2003 for providing financial support to Hamas under the cover of charitable activity. As of mid-2007, this official served on the Hamas executive committee under Hamas leader Khaled Misha'al.
The designation also fails to mention that Hamas, according to Article 2 of its own charter, is an integral part of the Muslim Brotherhood and defines itself as such. So, the Muslim Brotherhood charities funding the Muslim Brotherhood's Hamas wing should not be a surprise.
But what of Qaradawi, who is the most visible face of the international Muslim Brotherhood? He has issued fatwas supporting suicide bombings against Israel, the killings of Americans in Iraq, the beating of women as long as it doesn't leave visible marks, and the establishment of the global Muslim Caliphate.
His books are widely distributed by the Muslim Brotherhood legacy groups in the United States and around the world. He hosts a popular TV show and online chats, giving him one of the most important platforms among Islamists today.
Qaradawi is also the architect of the Brotherhood's long-term plan to convert Europe to an Islamic bastion through the pushing of the Islamist legal code and separatism.
He has been banned from entering Britain and the United States, but not designated. Perhaps next time? Hard to believe one would designate his organization without designating him.