Wednesday June 11, 2008
The Drug-Terrorist Link Means Wars Can Last Forever
The Brits are finally willing to lay out some of the truths about the war in Afghanistan, truths that apply in many other parts of the world, in a pattern that we continue to see growing.
According to the Daily Telegraph, a confidential report to the prime minister concludes that the drug trade will prolong the Taliban insurgency idenfinitely:
"Growing links between the drugs trade and the insurgency in the South will provide longevity to the Taliban," the UK document says. "In the south, the drugs trade is fuelling the insurgency."
It adds: "This is compounded by government corruption. Karzai chooses to avoid rocking the boat with powerful narco figures and has not blocked their appointment as governors or other senior officials."
In turn, Mr Karzai's failure to tackle corruption and the drug lords "only increases popular disillusion," further boosting the insurgency, the paper says.
In fact, almost half (19 of 43) foreign terrorist organizations designated by the United States have clear ties to drug trafficking networks, according to law enforcement studies.
Once the initial ideological or theological obstacles have been overcome in participating in the drug trade, terrorist organizations tend to dominate the structure in short order. This is true with the FARC in Colombia, the Taliban in Afghanistan/Pakistan, Hezbollah in the heroin trade when it was massively involved there in the last decade, and elsewhere.
The reason is that the terrorist/military organization usually brings muscle that the traditional organizations can't dispute, and a clandestine, compartmentalized structure suited to moving the product successfully.
In the short term, the alliances tend to work well because, as the case with the Karzai government, the government corruption due to drug traffickers erodes faith in the government, while the money the terrorist/criminal organizations accrue can be use for social services, weapons, trainers and winning hearts and minds.
In addition, the terrorist/insurgent groups lose their dependency on outside forces. They generate their own money, rather than relying on donations from Saudi Arabia, the former Soviet bloc, Venezuela etc., freeing them from the constraints that having to factor in the effect of their actions on their patrons.
Eventually, however, as the FARC has shown, the corruption seeps into the insurgent/terrorist/criminal group as well. The theological/ideological basis for the movement erodes, and popular support wanes.
The final, and most dangerous stage is when these groups, now better armed, better trained and better organized, again become purely criminal. However, at this point, the groups are self-sustaining for indefinite periods of time. The FARC, after 44 years (and 18 years after the fall of the Berlin Wall) is only now being threatened militarily.
The Taliban, then, growing enough opium to make 880 tons of heroin and supply more than 90 percent of the world heroin market, is not likely to be going anywhere soon.
It is a look at the future of the terrorist/criminal nexus, and the future is not bright.
According to the Daily Telegraph, a confidential report to the prime minister concludes that the drug trade will prolong the Taliban insurgency idenfinitely:
"Growing links between the drugs trade and the insurgency in the South will provide longevity to the Taliban," the UK document says. "In the south, the drugs trade is fuelling the insurgency."
It adds: "This is compounded by government corruption. Karzai chooses to avoid rocking the boat with powerful narco figures and has not blocked their appointment as governors or other senior officials."
In turn, Mr Karzai's failure to tackle corruption and the drug lords "only increases popular disillusion," further boosting the insurgency, the paper says.
In fact, almost half (19 of 43) foreign terrorist organizations designated by the United States have clear ties to drug trafficking networks, according to law enforcement studies.
Once the initial ideological or theological obstacles have been overcome in participating in the drug trade, terrorist organizations tend to dominate the structure in short order. This is true with the FARC in Colombia, the Taliban in Afghanistan/Pakistan, Hezbollah in the heroin trade when it was massively involved there in the last decade, and elsewhere.
The reason is that the terrorist/military organization usually brings muscle that the traditional organizations can't dispute, and a clandestine, compartmentalized structure suited to moving the product successfully.
In the short term, the alliances tend to work well because, as the case with the Karzai government, the government corruption due to drug traffickers erodes faith in the government, while the money the terrorist/criminal organizations accrue can be use for social services, weapons, trainers and winning hearts and minds.
In addition, the terrorist/insurgent groups lose their dependency on outside forces. They generate their own money, rather than relying on donations from Saudi Arabia, the former Soviet bloc, Venezuela etc., freeing them from the constraints that having to factor in the effect of their actions on their patrons.
Eventually, however, as the FARC has shown, the corruption seeps into the insurgent/terrorist/criminal group as well. The theological/ideological basis for the movement erodes, and popular support wanes.
The final, and most dangerous stage is when these groups, now better armed, better trained and better organized, again become purely criminal. However, at this point, the groups are self-sustaining for indefinite periods of time. The FARC, after 44 years (and 18 years after the fall of the Berlin Wall) is only now being threatened militarily.
The Taliban, then, growing enough opium to make 880 tons of heroin and supply more than 90 percent of the world heroin market, is not likely to be going anywhere soon.
It is a look at the future of the terrorist/criminal nexus, and the future is not bright.
POSTED BY DOUGLAS FARAH
Monday June 9, 2008
Chavez's Abrupt About-Face on the FARC
What does Hugo Chavez's abrupt call for the FARC to end its war and free all its hostages mean for the Colombian rebels? And what does it mean for Chavez?
Chavez, who earlier this year repeatedly called for the world to recognize the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) as a legitimate "belligerent force" rather than a terrorist group, said the guerrillas were "out of step" with the times and that their war was "history."
In his weekly television and radio programme on Sunday, Mr Chavez urged the Farc's new leader, Alfonso Cano, to "let all these people go".
"There are old folk, women, sick people, soldiers who have been prisoners in the mountain for 10 years," he added.
The Venezuelan president said ending the rebellion could lead to a peace process between the rebels and the Colombian government.
"The guerrilla war is history," he said. "At this moment in Latin America, an armed guerrilla movement is out of place."
Chavez's statements come at an interesting juncture: The FARC is at is weakest point in years, with three of its top seven commanders dying in the past two months, and a new leadership struggling to impose order and control on units in the field; and Chavez showing off some of the sophisticated weaponry he recently purchased from Russia and elsewhere.
This included new European-made Otomat MK2 missiles and Russian Sukhoi fighter jets.
It seems that Chavez believes his own rhetoric, that his primary threat is from a US invasion. While few even in the region share this assessment, he has spent several billion dollars on weapons in the past three years in an effort to show Venezuela's power of "dissuasion and defense."
So, why publicly throw the FARC under the bus now, after defending them internationally, despite the damning evidence gathered from FARC computers that the rebels had direct lines of access to senior Venezuelan military and intelligence officials, and Chavez himself when necessary?
The documents, which Interpol agreed came from computers that were not tampered with by Colombian police, were a treasure trove of information on the alliance between the senior FARC leadership and the leaders of Venezuela, Ecuador and others.
Perhaps Chavez is giving a strikingly public vote of no-confidence in the FARC's new leadership. Chavez knows Cano well, and perhaps does not believe the academic can hold together a largely-peasant based movement.
Or perhaps he wants to cut his loses by not backing a losing cause any longer. The FARC enjoys virtually no support, even in the rest of Latin America.
If Chavez were to negotiate the release of the high-profile FARC hostages, including Ingrid Betancourt, he would be a hero. If he were able to deliver the three American hostages, US pressure would ease, and Chavez would gain even more.
Or, perhaps in keeping with his past, Chavez is immersed in some hidden game that has little or nothing to do with what he is actually saying. Time will tell.
In the mean time, it must be terribly worrisome for Cano and the rest of the FARC leadership to see the public retreat of their only international defender. When a losing streak reaches this proportion, perhaps it is time to fold one's cards and get out of the game.
Chavez, who earlier this year repeatedly called for the world to recognize the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) as a legitimate "belligerent force" rather than a terrorist group, said the guerrillas were "out of step" with the times and that their war was "history."
In his weekly television and radio programme on Sunday, Mr Chavez urged the Farc's new leader, Alfonso Cano, to "let all these people go".
"There are old folk, women, sick people, soldiers who have been prisoners in the mountain for 10 years," he added.
The Venezuelan president said ending the rebellion could lead to a peace process between the rebels and the Colombian government.
"The guerrilla war is history," he said. "At this moment in Latin America, an armed guerrilla movement is out of place."
Chavez's statements come at an interesting juncture: The FARC is at is weakest point in years, with three of its top seven commanders dying in the past two months, and a new leadership struggling to impose order and control on units in the field; and Chavez showing off some of the sophisticated weaponry he recently purchased from Russia and elsewhere.
This included new European-made Otomat MK2 missiles and Russian Sukhoi fighter jets.
It seems that Chavez believes his own rhetoric, that his primary threat is from a US invasion. While few even in the region share this assessment, he has spent several billion dollars on weapons in the past three years in an effort to show Venezuela's power of "dissuasion and defense."
So, why publicly throw the FARC under the bus now, after defending them internationally, despite the damning evidence gathered from FARC computers that the rebels had direct lines of access to senior Venezuelan military and intelligence officials, and Chavez himself when necessary?
The documents, which Interpol agreed came from computers that were not tampered with by Colombian police, were a treasure trove of information on the alliance between the senior FARC leadership and the leaders of Venezuela, Ecuador and others.
Perhaps Chavez is giving a strikingly public vote of no-confidence in the FARC's new leadership. Chavez knows Cano well, and perhaps does not believe the academic can hold together a largely-peasant based movement.
Or perhaps he wants to cut his loses by not backing a losing cause any longer. The FARC enjoys virtually no support, even in the rest of Latin America.
If Chavez were to negotiate the release of the high-profile FARC hostages, including Ingrid Betancourt, he would be a hero. If he were able to deliver the three American hostages, US pressure would ease, and Chavez would gain even more.
Or, perhaps in keeping with his past, Chavez is immersed in some hidden game that has little or nothing to do with what he is actually saying. Time will tell.
In the mean time, it must be terribly worrisome for Cano and the rest of the FARC leadership to see the public retreat of their only international defender. When a losing streak reaches this proportion, perhaps it is time to fold one's cards and get out of the game.
POSTED BY DOUGLAS FARAH
Thursday June 5, 2008
Wael Julaidan, Al Qaeda Founder, Active Again in Saudi Arabia?
Is Wael Julaidan, founder of al Qaeda and one of only two Saudis ever designated as terrorist financiers by the Saudi regime and supposedly out of circulation, back in the public spotlight? It would seem so.
According to the English language Saudi paper, the the Arab News Julaidan was a featured speaker at a recent conference hosted by the World Assembly of Muslim Youth (WAMY). The article was first noted and commented on by the Global MB Report (registration required).
There are no other known leaders of Julaidan's stature that my most knowledgeable sources say share that name, or would be noted with such prominence, so the likelihood that it is the same Julaidan that is designated by the UN, the US and Saudi Arabia, is very high.
This would mean, in essence, that one of the very few actions the Saudis claimed to have taken against the financiers and sympathizers of al Qaeda, was a bogus as almost every other step the Kingdom has claimed to have taken.
The WAMY conference was a big deal, that Julaidan's appearance there was a high-profile event, where he was listed on the program as a "major speaker." So no one tried to sneak anything by anyone.
Julaidan was not a garden-variety designation, and it cost a great deal of U.S. pressure, where significant evidence was presented by senior U.S. officials, to get him designated at all. It is worth recalling that, immediately after designating Julaidan, the Saudis immediately said he had not been designated. Pressed by the Americans, they again reversed course and said he was under house arrest, with his assets frozen.
If that were ever true, and no one was allowed to question the man who bin Laden has publicly credited with helping to found his organization, it appears that it is no longer true.
Julaidan also played a prominent role in Rabita Trust, where some branches were linked to financing al Qaeda, and he played a prominent role in the Sudanese-run Third World Relief Agency (TWRA), the al Qaeda-linked charity that funneled hundreds of millions of dollars to Muslim fighters in Bosnia.
It is unlikely the rehabilitation of Julaidan will have any consequences, despite the naked lies the Saudi regime has told regarding his circumstance. We are tied to their oil, President Bush still visits the Kingdom to hold hands with the princes, and little changes.
But it exactly this type of action the give indications as to the seriousness of those supposedly doing their best to cut off terrorist funding. When you let the check writer go, with a full bank account, words don't really matter much.
According to the English language Saudi paper, the the Arab News Julaidan was a featured speaker at a recent conference hosted by the World Assembly of Muslim Youth (WAMY). The article was first noted and commented on by the Global MB Report (registration required).
There are no other known leaders of Julaidan's stature that my most knowledgeable sources say share that name, or would be noted with such prominence, so the likelihood that it is the same Julaidan that is designated by the UN, the US and Saudi Arabia, is very high.
This would mean, in essence, that one of the very few actions the Saudis claimed to have taken against the financiers and sympathizers of al Qaeda, was a bogus as almost every other step the Kingdom has claimed to have taken.
The WAMY conference was a big deal, that Julaidan's appearance there was a high-profile event, where he was listed on the program as a "major speaker." So no one tried to sneak anything by anyone.
Julaidan was not a garden-variety designation, and it cost a great deal of U.S. pressure, where significant evidence was presented by senior U.S. officials, to get him designated at all. It is worth recalling that, immediately after designating Julaidan, the Saudis immediately said he had not been designated. Pressed by the Americans, they again reversed course and said he was under house arrest, with his assets frozen.
If that were ever true, and no one was allowed to question the man who bin Laden has publicly credited with helping to found his organization, it appears that it is no longer true.
Julaidan also played a prominent role in Rabita Trust, where some branches were linked to financing al Qaeda, and he played a prominent role in the Sudanese-run Third World Relief Agency (TWRA), the al Qaeda-linked charity that funneled hundreds of millions of dollars to Muslim fighters in Bosnia.
It is unlikely the rehabilitation of Julaidan will have any consequences, despite the naked lies the Saudi regime has told regarding his circumstance. We are tied to their oil, President Bush still visits the Kingdom to hold hands with the princes, and little changes.
But it exactly this type of action the give indications as to the seriousness of those supposedly doing their best to cut off terrorist funding. When you let the check writer go, with a full bank account, words don't really matter much.
POSTED BY DOUGLAS FARAH
Sunday March 22, 2009
Viktor Bout is Apparently Worth Quite a Lot to the Russians
Well, from my sources in Thailand and elsewhere it seems that Viktor Bout, weapons merchant extraordinaire, is worth quite a bit to the Russians.
Bout, in prison in Thailand awaiting extradition to the United States, may not make it back, despite having a long history of providing weapons to terrorists, criminals and some of the world's most vicious thugs, such as Charles Taylor, Laurent Kabila, the Taliban, the FARC and hosts of others.
The reason he may not make it back is that the Russians are far more afraid of his standing trial than was originally anticipated. After several diplomatic efforts to get Bout out of prison and back to Russia, the Russian government, or at least its military establishment, has decided to let some money and hardware do the talking.
My sources tell me the Russian ambassador in Thailand has met several times with the Thai prime minister, and has offered sweet heart deals on weapons systems, including fighter jets, in exchange for Bout.
In addition, the Russians are offering sweet heart gas and oil deals to sweeten the pot, which is a significant offer given the current market price of these fuels.
The question is, why would Bout be so valuable to the Russians, and what is it that they fear he could or would say in a court?
The most obvious answer is that he is deeply in bed and protected by the Russian military establishment and its intelligence services.
A look at the weapons he offered to provide (taken together with the weapons he did, in fact, provide in the past) shows how confident he was getting access to the upper reaches of the Russian arsenal, something impossible to do without official protection.
In the Russian underworld, such connections are called krisha, a roof that shelters those with ties to powerful officials and criminal bosses.
The
indictment states that Bout offered: 700-800 surface-to-air missiles; 5,000 AK-47 assault rifles; millions of rounds of ammunition; anti-personnel land mines and C-4 explosives; night vision equipment; "ultralight" aircraft that could be outfitted with grenade launchers and missiles; and unmanned aerial vehicles that have a range of 200-300 kilometers.
Now, one can certainly see a salesman blowing smoke to make a sale, but the price for promising and not delivering in his business is usually an unpleasant death. Bout won his fame in his business for delivering what he said he would deliver, when and where he said he would deliver it.
So, whoever his krisha is, they are worried enough to offer the equivalent of millions of dollars in bribes to keep Bout from standing trial. Clearly they are worried about more than just a little bad publicity. They are afraid he will bring the entire house down if he ever turns.
Bout, in prison in Thailand awaiting extradition to the United States, may not make it back, despite having a long history of providing weapons to terrorists, criminals and some of the world's most vicious thugs, such as Charles Taylor, Laurent Kabila, the Taliban, the FARC and hosts of others.
The reason he may not make it back is that the Russians are far more afraid of his standing trial than was originally anticipated. After several diplomatic efforts to get Bout out of prison and back to Russia, the Russian government, or at least its military establishment, has decided to let some money and hardware do the talking.
My sources tell me the Russian ambassador in Thailand has met several times with the Thai prime minister, and has offered sweet heart deals on weapons systems, including fighter jets, in exchange for Bout.
In addition, the Russians are offering sweet heart gas and oil deals to sweeten the pot, which is a significant offer given the current market price of these fuels.
The question is, why would Bout be so valuable to the Russians, and what is it that they fear he could or would say in a court?
The most obvious answer is that he is deeply in bed and protected by the Russian military establishment and its intelligence services.
A look at the weapons he offered to provide (taken together with the weapons he did, in fact, provide in the past) shows how confident he was getting access to the upper reaches of the Russian arsenal, something impossible to do without official protection.
In the Russian underworld, such connections are called krisha, a roof that shelters those with ties to powerful officials and criminal bosses.
The
indictment states that Bout offered: 700-800 surface-to-air missiles; 5,000 AK-47 assault rifles; millions of rounds of ammunition; anti-personnel land mines and C-4 explosives; night vision equipment; "ultralight" aircraft that could be outfitted with grenade launchers and missiles; and unmanned aerial vehicles that have a range of 200-300 kilometers.
Now, one can certainly see a salesman blowing smoke to make a sale, but the price for promising and not delivering in his business is usually an unpleasant death. Bout won his fame in his business for delivering what he said he would deliver, when and where he said he would deliver it.
So, whoever his krisha is, they are worried enough to offer the equivalent of millions of dollars in bribes to keep Bout from standing trial. Clearly they are worried about more than just a little bad publicity. They are afraid he will bring the entire house down if he ever turns.
POSTED BY DOUGLAS FARAH
Monday June 2, 2008
Why Afghanistan Cannot Be Won
Under current conditions, the NATO-led war against the Taliban in Afghanistan cannot be won. The most graphic reason is described in New York Times article on the reality of the Taliban control in Tribal Territories.
While the Pakistani army goes for show, flying journalists in for a brief visit to demonstrate how the Taliban is in retreat, the Taliban goes for a far different tactic.
Baitullah Mehsud, the head of Pakistani Taliban, called a news conference in the same area, drove up in a new Toyota SUV full of security carrying new AK-47 assault rifles, and holds court, unmolested, for an extended period of time.
Mehsud was not bashful about acknowledging his role in combating U.S. and NATO forces in Afghanistan, and promised to intensify those attacks. Articulating the standard _jihadi-Islamist_ view, he stated that "Islam does not recognize boundaries. There can be no deal with the United States."
(For a detailed look at recent developments, see the NEFA Foundation's paper on the region, which can be found here.)
So, after billions of dollars in aid to Pakistan, and particularly the military and intelligence services, this is what we have:
The impunity of Mehsud's behavior has outraged the Bush administration, which is pressing the Pakistani government to arrest and prosecute him.
"Bringing Baitullah Mehsud, the head of this extremist group in South Waziristan — capturing him and bringing him to justice, which is what should happen to him," is what the United States wants from Pakistan, Deputy Secretary of State John Negroponte said last month in testimony before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee.
But the Pakistani government, which at times has considered Mehsud an ally and is now fearful of his power, appears reluctant to hunt him down. Days before his news conference, Pakistani forces pulled back from his realm in South Waziristan as part of the peace deals.
It is hard to think of a more hollow threat now than to cut off the Pakistani military and ISI from US funds. That simply has no credibility left. Negroponte and other can roar all they like to Congress and the outside world, but it only makes the situation worse.
It is time to stop pretending Pakistan can or will be an ally against the Taliban, either in Pakistan or Afghanistan. The group grew and was nurtured under the wings of the ISI, and are broadly supported, both by officials in Pakistan, and, in many places, by the population.
Without being able to rely on the Pakistani authorities to deny the Taliban sanctuary and without being able to take direct action in those areas itself, the NATO forces are hamstrung in an effort that at best can hold the line for a few years. Victory, or any semblance thereof, is simply out of the question as long as these sanctuaries remain.
While the Pakistani army goes for show, flying journalists in for a brief visit to demonstrate how the Taliban is in retreat, the Taliban goes for a far different tactic.
Baitullah Mehsud, the head of Pakistani Taliban, called a news conference in the same area, drove up in a new Toyota SUV full of security carrying new AK-47 assault rifles, and holds court, unmolested, for an extended period of time.
Mehsud was not bashful about acknowledging his role in combating U.S. and NATO forces in Afghanistan, and promised to intensify those attacks. Articulating the standard _jihadi-Islamist_ view, he stated that "Islam does not recognize boundaries. There can be no deal with the United States."
(For a detailed look at recent developments, see the NEFA Foundation's paper on the region, which can be found here.)
So, after billions of dollars in aid to Pakistan, and particularly the military and intelligence services, this is what we have:
The impunity of Mehsud's behavior has outraged the Bush administration, which is pressing the Pakistani government to arrest and prosecute him.
"Bringing Baitullah Mehsud, the head of this extremist group in South Waziristan — capturing him and bringing him to justice, which is what should happen to him," is what the United States wants from Pakistan, Deputy Secretary of State John Negroponte said last month in testimony before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee.
But the Pakistani government, which at times has considered Mehsud an ally and is now fearful of his power, appears reluctant to hunt him down. Days before his news conference, Pakistani forces pulled back from his realm in South Waziristan as part of the peace deals.
It is hard to think of a more hollow threat now than to cut off the Pakistani military and ISI from US funds. That simply has no credibility left. Negroponte and other can roar all they like to Congress and the outside world, but it only makes the situation worse.
It is time to stop pretending Pakistan can or will be an ally against the Taliban, either in Pakistan or Afghanistan. The group grew and was nurtured under the wings of the ISI, and are broadly supported, both by officials in Pakistan, and, in many places, by the population.
Without being able to rely on the Pakistani authorities to deny the Taliban sanctuary and without being able to take direct action in those areas itself, the NATO forces are hamstrung in an effort that at best can hold the line for a few years. Victory, or any semblance thereof, is simply out of the question as long as these sanctuaries remain.
POSTED BY DOUGLAS FARAH