The most neglected of the stories, it seems to me, given the enormous impact it has on not just a continent (Africa) but on global trade, is Somalia. The Islamists have scored a number of significant victories there, and only belatedly has the international community responded to the growing pirate threat that provides the Islamists and others a vital economic lifeline.
Another is the traceable spread of Hezbollah, both in sub-Saharan Africa and in Latin America. This quasi-state actor has made significant inroads in Venezuela, Panama and the Tri-Border Area, and is clearly not establishing themselves in these locations to go on vacation. One has to ask oneself what the purpose of such large investments in infrastructure and personnel is?
This, taken with the growing presence of Iran, Hezbollah's principal state sponsor, has only one goal, given the absence of historic or cultural ties or of a significant diaspora that would merit interest. And that is to position a veteran Islamist fighting force to attack the United States and its allies in the region should such an action be deemed necessary by Hezbollah, Iran, or other interlocutors.
The Hezbollah presence is close, both politically (through Hugo Chavez in Venezuela) and geographically, to the FARC in Colombia. The FARC, suffering a series of defeats militarily, will likely devolve into a well-armed drug trafficking organization (or several) that will have the resources to continue to attack the Uribe governmnet.
Another, though not directly tied to transnational terrorism, is the chaos in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), where rebels under the command of Laurent Nkunda are sweeping in from the east with the backing of Rwanda. This war that is part ethnic, part geopolitical, and part resource driven will destabilize a great deal of the African continent, create another massive humanitarian crisis and suck resources away from the economic advancement of many countries.
The chaos will attract not only organized criminal groups who hope to make some money on the conflict, but terrorists and their recruiters will also be there, as surely as night follows day.
Afghanistan and the Taliban are receiving lots of thought and coverage, and breaking the link between the Islamist radicals and the drug traffickers will be one of the most pressing challenges the new administration faces.
Then there are the myriad Mexican and Central American gangs and cartels, a threat because they regularly cross our border to bring in drugs and illegal immigrants from around the world, and take out money, weapons, and stolen cars.
In another type of electoral season, these issues would have been raised and solutions debated. The next administration, would do well to look across the transnational, non-state threat horizon early and often, because it will be a challenge that will confront us early and often.
The latest report from Partnership Africa Canada, a leading group in combating the use of blood diamonds and monitoring the Kimberley Process (KP), documents how the relatively small but still lucrative trade in Venezuelan diamonds has gone rogue.
The KP was designed to monitor the path of diamond from mining to sale, to insure that only licit diamonds make it to the world market.
The report, which reviews the compliance of many nations, blasts Venezuela particularly harshly. Given the documented support of Chávez and senior members of his intelligence apparatus for both the FARC in Colombia and Hezbollah (and the close ties to Iran), the disappearance of 200,000 carats of diamonds of years is a risk.
This untraceable revenue stream could become even more important as oil prices continue to plummet, leaving the Chávez government with rapidly shrinking revenues. This, in turn means that the social expectations generated by his revolution will remain unmet.
Perhaps more importantly, Venezuela's ability to heavily subsidize oil to its allies in Cuba, Nicaragua and elsewhere, and the billions of money thrown around to spread Chávez's brand of revolution, is now sharply curtailed. My sources say Venezuela needs the price of oil to remain above $90 a barrel to pay of its current policies.
Maybe that is why the diamonds are no longer traceable, as the report notes. It could also explain the high volume of cocaine moving through Venezuela, a volume that has climbed dramatically in recent months. It is interesting to note that the two biggest busts of recent times in West Africa (Guinea Bissau and Sierra Leone in recent months) came on Venezuela aircraft, with Colombian pilots.
For all intents and purposes, Venezuela has for the past three years been operating as a diamond outlaw state. Unfortunately, in the 18 months after PAC brought the issue of Venezuela’s non-compliance to the attention of the Kimberley Process, the KP was unable to bring about any meaningful change in the situation.
What in fact appears to be happening is that the government has driven out the small-time miners who traditionally exploited the mines. Once under government control, the mines simply stop reporting their production, so it goes off the books, meaning it could go anywhere.
PAC, I should note, has done groundbreaking work over many years on the use of diamonds to pay for the wars in Africa, and has been hammering on this theme for several years, as Venezuela has continuously failed to report its diamond earnings.
As the report notes:
Little of this production has been making it into Venezuela’s legitimate diamond export channels. Only 642 carats were legally declared in southern Bolivar state in March 2008, an amount a local Ministry of Mines and Basic Industry (Miban) official said
represented perhaps 10% of local production. What happened even to those diamonds remains a mystery, as Venezuela has not issued any Kimberley Certificates since January, 2005.
With no legal exit, Venezuela’s diamonds – perhaps some 200,000 carats per year – flow out of the country as contraband, most traversing the border of Brazil on their way to Guyana’s capital of Georgetown, where exporters mix them with Guyanese diamonds, passing the mixed parcels off as legitimate domestic production. To facilitate this contraband trade, several Georgetown exporters employ mid-level buyers in Venezuela,
most of whom operate openly out of a dozen street-front diamond buying offices in the border town of Santa Elena.
Commodities are an important part of any the financial architecture of criminal and terrorist organizations. Allowing the diamond industry to go rogue is a strong indication that these groups are at work.
This is the clearest publicly-available case that shows how organized criminal groups and terrorist organizations are broadening and strengthening their links. The Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA), responsible for several significant busts recently, led this one too.
The operation has been underway for several years, and has yielded a trove of information on Hezbollah's ties to the Lebanese diaspora in Latin America, and the money ring that stretches through Venezuela, Panama, Guatemala, Hong Kong, the United States, Europe and Lebanon. The size of the network, the ability to function across religious and ethnic lines, and ability of all groups to profit from the criminal enterprise should give one pause.
The profits from the sales of drugs went to finance Hezbollah," said Gladys Sanchez, lead investigator for the special prosecutor's office in Bogota, in an interview. "This is an example of how narco-trafficking is a theme of interest to all criminal organizations, the FARC, the paramilitaries and terrorists."
Ms. Sanchez is exactly right. The contours of the pipeline are easy to identify. The regime of Hugo Chavez in Venezuela has allowed Iranian banks to operate, brought in flights whose passengers are not registered, and issued multiple identification cards to Iranian and Syrian individuals.
The FARC, in Colombia, in turn, exporting some 250 tons of cocaine through Venezuela, who allows the rebels to pay off generals in charge of specific ports. Chavez has to do this, in part, to buy peace in the military, who have grown tired of his antics and his inability to fulfill his promises.
So, Iran sponsors Hezbollah and allies with Chavez. Chavez sponsors the FARC and allies with Iran. The FARC has the dope, Hezbollah has the international distribution network, having been involved in heroin traffic and organized criminal activities for years.
What is alarming to me is that, despite Hezbollah's stated intention to attack the United States and Iran's evident interest in having the ability to strike at the United States, this alliance (and the Chavez-Iran alliance) attract very little attention at senior policy levels.
Perhaps it is the end-of-administration syndrome, coupled with the Iraq-Afghanistan energy and attention suck, that allow these events to pass almost unnoticed. Yet this pipeline is in a far better position to strike the United States than the Sunni terrorist structures operating out of Afghanistan.
We can see how they are funded, and that there is a clear interest in expansion. What we don't see is many people paying attention.
This struck me in reading how the Islamists view the current financial crisis in the West. For Hamas, a part of the global Muslim Brotherhood, the crisis is divine punishment for the multiple sins of the non-Islamist world.
We see it as God's punishment for the criminals (U.S. and its Western allies). Nothing is more unjust than occupying an Islamic state. Nothing is more unjust than keeping the Palestinian people under occupation for over 60 years," Ismail Haniyeh told worshippers before Friday prayers in the Gaza Strip.
This view is shared by al Qaeda. In a recent statements al Qaeda has gloated over the meltdown.
Al-Qaida and other extremist groups have gloated in recent weeks about the West's financial woes, painting the crisis as either divine punishment for supposed wrongs or the last gasps of a dying empire.
An American al-Qaida member, Adam Gadahn, said in a video released this month that ``the enemies of Islam are facing a crushing defeat, which is beginning to manifest itself in the expanding crisis their economy is experiencing.''
The similarity of the sentiments shows what many of us have long said: That while Hamas and the larger Muslim Brotherhood are not the same as al Qaeda, they do share a similar world view. While they differ on tactics, the end result they look to as part of their divine harvest, is in fact, identical.
The difference in tactics is, from time to time, enough to set off a round of killing among them, but both, in the end, believe they must, and will, establish Allah's kingdom on earth. To that end, they have the right, or more accurately a duty, to rid the world of infidels. This means everyone who does not agree with them, even other Muslims.
Within this world view, a financial crisis seemingly coming out of the blue, can only be seen as a form of divine punishment for their enemies. Portraying it as such is part of narrative that needs to be constantly be updated, revised and retold to keep the faithful, well, faithful.
Every revolutionary and terrorist group-and others-with any historical trajectory builds into itself a narrative of the righteousness of its cause, some view of the world that justifies its actions.
What is striking is that the narrative of the Islamists, be it Hamas and the Muslim Brotherhood or al Qaeda, all end with the rest of us dead.
The most interesting are these videos of the training camps in Somalia and the English-language videos.
Islamists operating in Somalia, some have repeatedly argued, are largely an indigenous group with few real ties to al Qaeda central or broader militant movements. These videos, and the accompanying texts of the statements show that, while that may have been true in the past, it certainly is not now.
Somalia is attempting to become the new Afghanistan on the African continent, and perhaps has already achieved that goal.
The conditions are favorable. Chaos, no government to speak of, a large pool of potential recruits, anger at the current situation and lack of significant international response, and established veterans to lead the movement who have ties to the al Qaeda core.
The fact that the Ethiopian troops and modest peacekeeping mission have not succeeded in establishing an functioning government is testament to the group's strength (and to the government's weakness.)
Al Qaeda has made no secret of its desire to open as many new fronts as possible, in the belief that it can bleed the rest of the world into submission. With combatants leaving Iraq, Afghanistan and Somalia have become the new points of concentration.
The footage includes scenes of mujahideen recruits practicing using automatic weapons, RPGs, and anti-tank weapons—all under the watchful eyes of such instructors as Shebaab military chief Shaykh Mukhtar Robow (a.k.a. Abu Mansuur) and FBI Most Wanted terrorist suspect Saleh Ali Saleh Nabhan. The video also shows recruits receiving lessons in the fabrication of explosives and advanced urban warfare/assault tactics.
There is nothing subtle in the English-language appeals to Muslims to join the jihad.
"We have a global mission, that's why America puts us number 41 in the terrorists' list... I sincerely advise my beloved brothers and sisters to make hijrah and come join us and defend the religion of Allah." Another Shebaab recruit, sitting in front of an anti-tank missile, directed a menacing call "to the filthy dogs of Denmark, may Allah(SWT) break their hands for what they have drawn. We will never forget their mockery of the best of mankind and the last Messenger. So, sleep with the thoughts of our swords dripping with your blood." He added, "I'm calling on all Muslims in the world to stand up and avenge for their religion, their books, their prophet. Stand up, and resist the oppression of the kuffar [infidels]... and fight the kuffar [infidels] and their apostate puppets. O' Muslim brothers, migrate to the lands of jihad and fight alongside your brothers.
On the other side of the continent, Al Qaeda's Committee in the Islamic Maghreb has also been issuing statements on their recent activity.
One thing that stands out in this announcement, as well as several other al Qaeda-related announcements, is the constant warning against fraudulent statements put out by other groups. It seems there is a large amount of propaganda, put out as part of black ops or by competing Islamist groups, that have these guys on edge. Interesting.
But the larger point is that, as AFRICOM stands up, it is facing a growing Islamist threat, and one that has already made significant inroads in building armed groups that are loosely affiliated but tied by their hatred of anything non-Islamist. They are clearly reaching a new level of sophistication, both on the ground an in their propaganda operations.