It is clear that the jihadist movement, to reuse an overused cliche, will flow like water downhill, taking the paths of least resistance. Yemen, with its declining oil revenues, weak central government, inhospitable geography and population that is at least intellectually in tune with al Qaeda's fundamentalist theology, is such a place. It has the added benefit and symbolic value for Osama bin Laden and his family of being their ancestral home, from whence bin Laden's father came to Saudi Arabia.
Radical Islamists need different spaces for different reasons. Criminalized states allow them to move money and generate funds. Failed or failing states with a strongly sympathetic population in which to move undetected afford something even more valuable - the chance to establish a physical space that is part of their vision of the Caliphate, or Allah's kingdom on earth.
It is easy to forget that immediately after 9/11 there were many in the jihadist community that argued that the attacks had been a mistake, not because of the loss of human life but because it mobilized the international community to invade Afghanistan and put an end to the existence of the Muslim state that declared itself the beachhead of the global Caliphate.
This is of primary importance to the Islamist community, and one that highlights the reasons for such fierce fighting and penetration in Yemen, Somalia and Afghanistan. It is not so much the training camps and safe havens that draw the Islamist combatants to these regions. It is the possibility of creating a divinely-mandated earthly government under the rule of Sharia law (as they interpret it).
Afghanistan is another such place, now part of the mythical narrative the movement is creating as it moves forward. If the Taliban can succeed there, not only will it be a sign of divine favor but a place where Allah rules. Once that is established, the global jihadists have a place from which to expand and continue the war against the infidel world.
Yemen has already shown the danger of allowing these groups to settle in and become a focal point for teaching and training of would-be "martyrs" from around the world. If the base exists, they will come. At its center, al Qaeda understood this from the beginning.
Afghanistan would be many times more dangerous, and that is why the idea of negotiating with Mullah Omar and his true believers is a pipe dream. Even if the Taliban really wanted to give assurances their territory would not be used to attack the United States (and that is a very big if), it could not stop it from happening. Jihadists from around the world will flock in to the new piece of the Caliphate and, secure in the knowledge they will not be driven out, but greeted as heroes, they will plot their next attacks.
I agree that the jihadist movement is decentralized and franchised out, and the core historic leadership cannot and does not call many of the shots any more. But wherever there is space to occupy, the Islamists are prepared to move in, and the more permissive the environment, the more rapidly they do so. Afghanistan under Taliban rule would be a second Mecca for those seeking to attack the unbelieving world, and that is our strategic interest in getting Afghanistan right.
There are catalyzing agents, such as Anwar al-Aulaqi, who seems to have had a direct hand in galvanizing the primary actors in both the Ft. Hood massacre and the Christmas airline attack. And there are individuals who seek to be galvanized.
Loneliness and alienation seem to push certain people toward seeking a spiritual experience, and certainly not solely in Islam. But one of the great structures looking for such individuals is the Muslim Brotherhood and its many, many institutions.
As the Global Muslim Brotherhood Daily Report (free subscription required) reports, Umar Farouk Abdulmutallab, who has been charged with attempting to blow up a U.S. airliner, was president of the campus Islamic Society, but the group says he never expressed any extremist views…..The British Federation of Student Islamic Societies confirms Abdulmutallab led its UCL chapter between 2006 and 2007, but it insists it heard nothing to suggest he supported illegal acts. In fact, a spokesman says, during his tenure the society worked to forge closer ties with student groups of all faiths and no faith.
But wait. The Islamic Society is part of the Federation of Student Islamic Societies in the U.K. and Ireland (FOSIS), founded in 1962 and described as an umbrella grouping of most major university Islamic societies in the U.K.
What is the Brotherhood's basic message, as written by its founder and chief ideologue? That the world is in a state of darkness and utter sin, and the more uncomfortable and alienated one is, the closer the individual is to finding the truth in Islam.
So, you have lonely, alienated and unhappy people, in effect being told that their alienation is a sign that they are close to Allah and on their way to salvation. What is required of them? To use whatever means available to attack the current system perpetrated by infidels, and bring about a new, Islamic world.
Not everyone who joins the Brotherhood ends up committing acts of terrorism. But it is certainly one of the key gateways to radicalization, and one that provides a community and support structure for those who do.
Al Aulaqi had ties to the Muslim Brotherhood (working at Brotherhood-dominated mosques in Virginia and elsewhere), and so does Malik Nadal Hasan. This is not coincidence. As many noted after 9/11, every major violent Islamist leader, from Osama bin Laden to Mohammed Atta to Kahlid Sheik Mohammed passed through the Brotherhood on their way to greater radicalization.
And who is the Muslim Brotherhood in the United States, according to trial documents made public during the Holy Land Foundation trial? CAIR and the rest of the organizations that pretend to speak on behalf of the Muslim community in the United States. The same groups that repeatedly and consistently pass themselves off as voices of moderation and reason with the ability to fight radicalization and extremism. Their record is not one that points in that direction.
One cannot say every attack is an isolated incident. Each one, whether directly connected to other actors or not on the surface is a part of a much larger and coherent movement that seeks, ultimately, to destroy the non-Muslim world, including any Muslims who don't agree with their fundamentalist theology. So let's stop talking about the attacks this way, and instead focus on the apparatus that pushes the actors to radicalization and justifies it for them.
That is not a single individual act, but a collective act of jihad carried out one individual at a time. There will be more in the new year, so it is not in our best interest to examine each tree in the forest as an isolated tree, but look at the eco-systems that create the environment in which the trees flourish.
One of the issues I have raised has now gone public - the protection of cocaine shipments through the Trans Sahel region by a combination of criminal and terrorist networks, including Al Qaeda in the Islamic Magreb (AQIM).
The other is the fact that now, after decades of saying the key to dismantling the cocaine cartels was to lower U.S. consumption (something that was long true), the panorama has changed dramatically. As the drugs fly from Colombia, via Venezuela to West Africa then the expanding European-Central European-Asian markets, it is clear the U.S. market is no longer so relevant.
Given the expanding markets elsewhere in the world, I would venture to say that if the U.S. reduced its demand by 20 percent overnight it would have relatively little impact on the GLOBAL flow of cocaine. It would be problematic for some suppliers, but not a defining issue, and that is radically different than the situation a few years ago.
This influx of cash is both dangerous for the immediate neighborhood, but would also give AQIM a whole new level of international financing, as I noted here.
We have the first public case where AQIM offers to protect large cocaine shipments transiting the region, and claims to have already provided such protection.
The Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA) ran a sting operation alleging to be members of the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC), which now has an operational presence in West Africa. This is the same scheme the DEA used to lure Monzar al Kazar to his arrest, extradition and conviction - as well as the same ploy used to lure Viktor Bout to Thailand, where he was arrested and awaits a ruling on a U.S. extradition request.
The arrests mark the first time U.S. authorities have captured and charged al-Qaida suspects in a drug trafficking plot in Africa, in a case officials say demonstrates the spread of the terror network into global criminal activity.
The three suspects -- believed to be in their 30's and originally from Mali -- were arrested in Ghana earlier this week and arrived in the United States early Friday morning, according to law enforcement officials speaking on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to discuss the case.
The three suspects are expected to appear Friday in federal court in New York on charges stemming from a months-long undercover investigation by the Drug Enforcement Administration. They face charges of narcoterrorism conspiracy, as well as conspiracy to provide material support to terrorists.
Authorities say the men are associates of al-Qaida's North African branch, and told DEA informants that al-Qaida could protect major shipments of cocaine in the region, driving the drugs by truck through the Sahara desert before eventually bringing them to Spain.
A criminal complaint unsealed Friday charges that Oumar Issa, Harouna Toure, and Idriss Abelrahman worked with al-Qaida in the Islamic Magreb.
Court papers say Toure and Abelrahman at one point claimed the profits from the drug business ''will go to their people to support the fight for 'the cause'.''
Of course, the majority of the money will flow back to the Colombian (i.e. FARC) groups that control the cocaine pipelines, as well as the Mexican cartels, which are increasingly reaching further and further south in order to expand their market share.
And the money paid out to AQIM will strengthen and embolden a terrorist group aiming at the United States, but primarily Europe, Algeria, Mali and Mauritania. Given its formal integration into al Qaeda central, AQIM could also become a financial vehicle for other parts of the radical Islamist universe.
In a nutshell, the enemy has opened another front, and we have weak allies, if they exist at all, fighting on the new front. And that is bad news indeed.
The Thais stopped the aircraft because U.S. intelligence warned them of the North Korean weapons on board, listed in the cargo manifest as oil drilling equipment. North Korea, although under an international ban on exporting weapons, makes an estimated $1 billion a year from the industry, attracting the least savory of the world's characters as clients.
Why the plane landed in Thailand is not entirely clear, nor is the final destination of the weapons. Iran buys North Korean weapons, largely for the Quds Force, Hezbollah and Hamas. These are terrorist organizations. Pakistan likewise has shown a fondness for the illegal purchases in the past, and much of that has gone to terrorist organizations. West Africa could also have been on the route.
The weapons included sophisticated rocket propelled grenade launchers and what experts said were K-100 rockets, known as AWAC killers because of their lethal use against the Airborne Warning and Control Systems aircraft, used as a flying radar stations.
The five crewmen arrested will, of course, share space in the Thai prison with Viktor Bout, who has also busted in Thailand trying to sell some of the same types of sophisticate weapons to people he believed represented the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC). An appeals court decision on Bout's extradition to the United States is expected in February. A lower court ruled he could not be extradited for his alleged crimes.
Another interesting aspect of the case is that the IL-76, although registered in the republic of Georgia, was registered to company, Air West, that has long been affiliated with Bout network in Sudan. If the companies in Georgia and Sudan are related it would be an interesting view of how the Bout empire has morphed since he was arrested in March 2008.
Another interesting facet is that the pilot of the IL-76 used almost the exact same language Bout has used to defend his actions of flying illegal cargo by saying he did not not what was in the boxes (although pictures clearly show the missiles stick out from under a tarp).
"I have no interest in what I carry," the pilot said. "Like a truck driver: just keep driving."
But the most interesting thing is that shadow facilitators are still active facilitating the sale of weapons from a rogue state to terrorists. While this flight was caught, it takes little imagination to see how nuclear material or even more sophisticated weapons could fly into the wild blue yonder with no one the wiser.
Why is it so easy? In part because once a state controls the levers of criminality, there is guaranteed impunity. Hence my argument of some time now that criminal states (those like North Korea, Zimbabwe and Venezuela, which all depend on criminal proceeds to stay in power) are a bigger threat - or at least a big a threat as failed states or ungoverned spaces.
A state like North Korea can control the entry and exit points of the national territory, guaranteeing the aircraft can come and go as necessary, and that the illegal merchandise is loaded with no hassle. It can provide fake End User Certificates, false bills of lading and a host of other advantages.
We have had recent cases where Venezuelan ships were carrying illicit cargo for Iran, Hezbollah operatives siphoning drugs from Colombian cartels to Lebanon and Russian organized crime helping to launder FARC cash.
This is the true state of the world we live in. While there is a great deal of discussion of failed states or ungoverned spaces, in truth almost every space is governed by someone, even if it is not the state. Criminal states, not counted among the failing states, are growing and are a clear menace to the rest of the world community. Because there is no consensus on what a criminal state is (and Russia is dangerously close to becoming one), there is no international mechanism for doing anything about them except for the occasional and generally unenforced U.N. sanctions.
The case shows, perhaps (no ruling has yet been made) that the sanctions can have some teeth. But it is a needle in a haystack game, and one cannot always find state-protected needles.
The conference shows how closely tied Chávez is to the FARC and other terrorist groups, despite the overwhelming evidence of the FARC's enormous involvement in drug trafficking, its thousands of kidnappings, endless attacks against the civilian population and its kidnapping of children and women to serve as sex slaves.
The second global convention of the Coordinadora Continental Bolivariana (Bolivarian Continental Coordinator-CCB), founded by the FARC in Venezuela in 2004 and newly renamed the Bolivarian Continental Movement, has as its primary stated purpose to militarily support the Venezuelan revolution and contribute to the struggle against Yankee bases in Colombia. Its platform also vows to overthrow the United States and its "moribund capitalist system."
The movement, which is running a multimedia website with its statements said the most exciting moment of the opening ceremony was the showing of a video of FARC leader Alfonso Cano greeting the group and wishing them success. Cano's speech (in Spanish) can be found here.
As is clear from the documents captured in the computer of Raul Reyes, the FARC is the primary founder and funder of the CCB. In a July 7, 2005 e-mail from Reyes to other FARC commanders that the FARC was not receiving enough credit for its leadership in the CCP, while recognizing that such participation could not be public.
The first CCB convention was held in late February 2008 in Quito, Ecuador, and the numerous visits of the delegates to the FARC camp where FARC commander Raul Reyes was living in a permanent structure was a trigger that led to Colombia's decision to bomb the camp, killing Reyes and others.
The vast majority of the armed left and right integrated into the democratic processes in Latin America after the peace processes in Central America, Colombia and elsewhere. A sign of how successful the new processes has been have been the electoral victories of once-armed left in El Salvador and Uruguay and the victory of Lula in Brazil. The necessity of armed revolution has passed, and Chávez's desire to re-start the bloodshed is a measure of his meglomania and authoritarianism.
The danger, as he discloses that he is receiving thousands of missiles from Russia, announces his intention to go nuclear and is close to finishing the installation of an AK-47 factory, is that he could, in fact, fan the region to flames. And that would be an historic tragedy.