Monday December 18, 2006
The Growing Power of States Within States
One of the great successes of the Islamists, particularly the Shi'ites, is the ability to create separate states within weak and failing states. The prime examples are Hezbollah and, as the Washington Post chronicles today, Moqtada al-Sadr in Iraq.
One could argue that there are groups within the Iranian intelligence and security apparatus that also form non-state groups. The alliance of these elements, with no formal power, to ally in transnational, borderless associations and alliances, is what poses one of the largest threats to the Middle East and beyond.
The weakness of the states that allow these groups to flourish gives these groups, along with Hamas and other Islamist and non-Islamist organizations, the priceless ability to provide social services, remedy injustice and corruption and generally make people's lives better on a measureable level.
At the same time, the states in which they reside do not have the strength to drive them out or confront them. Hezbollah was able to launch a war the state of Lebanon probably did not want and certainly could not win.
One of the most fascinating elements of the al Sadr piece was the recognition in the group that attacking the U.S. forces would be counterproductive. The U.S. troops are already leaving so they have no reason to bring on pain. They clearly understand that they will be stronger than the Iraqi state when the dust settles.
These groups are all fed by state actors (Syria, Iran, Saudi Arabia), and derive significant funding from them. But it is the internal weakness of the states themselves that allow non-state armed groups to grow like parasites, hollowing out the state from the inside.
These groups all have their own access to resources as well, giving them a degree of autonomy from their state backers. In the end, their agendas may serve the agendas of other states, but are seldom one and the same. Most of these groups, like Hamas has found, fail when actually given power. But formal power is not the aim. Informal, real power, with little responsibility or accountability, is a much better political position.
The ability to replace the state on even a limited scale offers Islamist groups a prime recruiting tool. They show weak and corrupt states to be what they are. They can promise-and deliver-more than the competition. When you are preaching separation from the world, the corruption of the apostate state leadership and the necessity of a radical new world order, this is a big prize.
These groups often over-step their bounds and flame out. The ELN in Colombia began campaigns of "social cleansing" in cities, shooting hitmen, drug dealers and prostitutes. But eventually the campaign spun out of control, and the population turned on them.
This could happen with Hezbollah and the al-Sadr group, but so far both seem to have been careful not to over-extend themselves. If they are not careful, they just might win.
One could argue that there are groups within the Iranian intelligence and security apparatus that also form non-state groups. The alliance of these elements, with no formal power, to ally in transnational, borderless associations and alliances, is what poses one of the largest threats to the Middle East and beyond.
The weakness of the states that allow these groups to flourish gives these groups, along with Hamas and other Islamist and non-Islamist organizations, the priceless ability to provide social services, remedy injustice and corruption and generally make people's lives better on a measureable level.
At the same time, the states in which they reside do not have the strength to drive them out or confront them. Hezbollah was able to launch a war the state of Lebanon probably did not want and certainly could not win.
One of the most fascinating elements of the al Sadr piece was the recognition in the group that attacking the U.S. forces would be counterproductive. The U.S. troops are already leaving so they have no reason to bring on pain. They clearly understand that they will be stronger than the Iraqi state when the dust settles.
These groups are all fed by state actors (Syria, Iran, Saudi Arabia), and derive significant funding from them. But it is the internal weakness of the states themselves that allow non-state armed groups to grow like parasites, hollowing out the state from the inside.
These groups all have their own access to resources as well, giving them a degree of autonomy from their state backers. In the end, their agendas may serve the agendas of other states, but are seldom one and the same. Most of these groups, like Hamas has found, fail when actually given power. But formal power is not the aim. Informal, real power, with little responsibility or accountability, is a much better political position.
The ability to replace the state on even a limited scale offers Islamist groups a prime recruiting tool. They show weak and corrupt states to be what they are. They can promise-and deliver-more than the competition. When you are preaching separation from the world, the corruption of the apostate state leadership and the necessity of a radical new world order, this is a big prize.
These groups often over-step their bounds and flame out. The ELN in Colombia began campaigns of "social cleansing" in cities, shooting hitmen, drug dealers and prostitutes. But eventually the campaign spun out of control, and the population turned on them.
This could happen with Hezbollah and the al-Sadr group, but so far both seem to have been careful not to over-extend themselves. If they are not careful, they just might win.
POSTED BY DOUGLAS FARAH
Monday December 18, 2006
Europe Remains Center of Islamist Focus
Europe has become the focal point for recruitment and expansion for several strands of Islamist thought and activity, from the Muslim Brotherhood to salafists fighting in Iraq and recruiting for Afghanistan. There is some tension between and among these groups, but what these groups have in common is a clear sense of what they are doing and why.
Perhaps the most interesting move, and one with long-term implications, is the (largely successful) efforts by these groups to buy large amounts of real estate, territory that effectively becomes "Muslim" land once it is in the hands of Islamist groups. Some groups are signing agreements to guarantee that they will only sell the land to other Muslims.
The Brotherhood, particularly, is active in investments in properties and businesses across Europe, laying the groundwork for the future network that will be able to react rapidly and with great flexibility in case of another attempted crackdown on the group's financial structure.
The newly-developed structures are largely designed to allow different groups within the international Brotherhood to become financially self-sufficient, perhaps in anticipation of future law enforcement activities against the Ikwan. It will also help insure that their presence is permanent, given the property ownership that is expanding.
Most of the money for the Ikwan and other groups comes from the usual sources-Saudi Arabia, and increasingly, Kuwait. The main financial houses of the Gulf region are channeling tens of millions of dollars to Brotherhood institutions and companies as part of their legitimate business activities.
The purchase of property is a strategy the Ikwan are replicating in the United States, where Brotherhood-affiliated groups have recently bought up tens of millions of dollars of U.S. real estate, often with offshore companies acting as fronts and creating layers of holding groups and shell entities that filter the money through multiple layers that make it almost impossible to trace.
This only underscores the fact that these groups, while having sharp disagreements among themselves, have a long-term plan of penetration and action in the non-Muslim world. These groups have strategies looking at 10 year to 50 year horizons.
In response, the governments of Europe and the United States continue to allow these groups to flourish and seek for the "moderate" elements that can be embraced as a counter-balance to the "radical" elements. (See my previous post on the embrace of CAIR).
Britain's "ExpoIslamia" circuses, used to incite Muslims to support suicide bombings and attack the West are tolerated because "moderates" are also allowed to speak.
Britain, for internal political reasons, has refused to say al Qaeda was responsible for the 7/7 attacks, despite clear evidence of the tie, and is reluctant to even acknowledge a possible al Qaeda link to the most recent airline plot.
We do not have a plan. They do. History shows that those that plan, anticipate and have a coherent strategy usually win. We are not winning.
Perhaps the most interesting move, and one with long-term implications, is the (largely successful) efforts by these groups to buy large amounts of real estate, territory that effectively becomes "Muslim" land once it is in the hands of Islamist groups. Some groups are signing agreements to guarantee that they will only sell the land to other Muslims.
The Brotherhood, particularly, is active in investments in properties and businesses across Europe, laying the groundwork for the future network that will be able to react rapidly and with great flexibility in case of another attempted crackdown on the group's financial structure.
The newly-developed structures are largely designed to allow different groups within the international Brotherhood to become financially self-sufficient, perhaps in anticipation of future law enforcement activities against the Ikwan. It will also help insure that their presence is permanent, given the property ownership that is expanding.
Most of the money for the Ikwan and other groups comes from the usual sources-Saudi Arabia, and increasingly, Kuwait. The main financial houses of the Gulf region are channeling tens of millions of dollars to Brotherhood institutions and companies as part of their legitimate business activities.
The purchase of property is a strategy the Ikwan are replicating in the United States, where Brotherhood-affiliated groups have recently bought up tens of millions of dollars of U.S. real estate, often with offshore companies acting as fronts and creating layers of holding groups and shell entities that filter the money through multiple layers that make it almost impossible to trace.
This only underscores the fact that these groups, while having sharp disagreements among themselves, have a long-term plan of penetration and action in the non-Muslim world. These groups have strategies looking at 10 year to 50 year horizons.
In response, the governments of Europe and the United States continue to allow these groups to flourish and seek for the "moderate" elements that can be embraced as a counter-balance to the "radical" elements. (See my previous post on the embrace of CAIR).
Britain's "ExpoIslamia" circuses, used to incite Muslims to support suicide bombings and attack the West are tolerated because "moderates" are also allowed to speak.
Britain, for internal political reasons, has refused to say al Qaeda was responsible for the 7/7 attacks, despite clear evidence of the tie, and is reluctant to even acknowledge a possible al Qaeda link to the most recent airline plot.
We do not have a plan. They do. History shows that those that plan, anticipate and have a coherent strategy usually win. We are not winning.
POSTED BY DOUGLAS FARAH
Monday December 18, 2006
When You Don't Get it, You Don't Get It
Seems like DHS, in an effort to reach out to the Muslim community to calm fears of profiling, decided to take leaders of the Council on American-Islamic Relations (CAIR) on a VIP, behind-the scenes tour of its new counter-terrorism measures.
It is a testament to the idea that you repeat the same mistake again and again and learn nothing that this type of outrage continues to happen. It is no longer a question of ignorance of who CAIR is and what CAIR stands for. That has been too amply documented to be in question if officials bothered with a simple google search. (Of course, as the Washington Post reported this morning, the FBI has basically no capability to do even that online, as their program for computer upgrades has gone down the toilet.
CAIR represents only a small slice of the Islamic community, the small slice that is intent on carrying out a radical Muslim agenda in the United States. The organization has consistently and successfully positioned itself as the voice of moderate Islam in America.
One of the most pernicious lies is that jihad is defined as a personal struggle against sin, rather than violence against infidels. This is historically inaccurate and demonstrably false. That that is still being taught to U.S. agents in any part of government is deeply disturbing and reflects and intellectual laziness that demonstrates that leadership in DHS has not learned even the basics of enemies who would like to blow us all up.
As WorldnetDaily.com reports:" During the airport tour, CAIR was taken on a walk through the point-of-entry, Customs stations, secondary screening and interview rooms. In addition, U.S. Customs and Border Patrol agents were asked to describe for CAIR representatives various features of the high-risk passenger lookout system.
"In a meeting, Brian Humphrey, Customs and Border Patrol's executive director of field operations, assured CAIR officials that agents do not single out Muslim passengers for special screening and that they must undergo a mandatory course in Muslim sensitivity training. The course teaches agents that Muslims believe jihad is an "internal struggle against sin" and not holy warfare.
"Customs agents involved in the CAIR tour at O'Hare tell WorldNetDaily they were outraged that headquarters would reveal sensitive counterterrorism procedures to an organization that has seen several of its own officials convicted of terror-related charges since 9-11.
"Isn't that nice of CBP," one agent said, to provide a "group like CAIR with a guided, behind-the-scenes tour of our customs facilities, explaining how programs designed to catch Muslim terrorists work."
"CAIR says the tour allayed its concerns about profiling and that it "looks forward to continuing the relationship with U.S. Customs and Border Protection offices in the region, and to furthering understanding between the organizations as well as facilitating future communication in order to eliminate problems for Muslim travelers before they even arise."
Strange, but truley scary.
It is a testament to the idea that you repeat the same mistake again and again and learn nothing that this type of outrage continues to happen. It is no longer a question of ignorance of who CAIR is and what CAIR stands for. That has been too amply documented to be in question if officials bothered with a simple google search. (Of course, as the Washington Post reported this morning, the FBI has basically no capability to do even that online, as their program for computer upgrades has gone down the toilet.
CAIR represents only a small slice of the Islamic community, the small slice that is intent on carrying out a radical Muslim agenda in the United States. The organization has consistently and successfully positioned itself as the voice of moderate Islam in America.
One of the most pernicious lies is that jihad is defined as a personal struggle against sin, rather than violence against infidels. This is historically inaccurate and demonstrably false. That that is still being taught to U.S. agents in any part of government is deeply disturbing and reflects and intellectual laziness that demonstrates that leadership in DHS has not learned even the basics of enemies who would like to blow us all up.
As WorldnetDaily.com reports:" During the airport tour, CAIR was taken on a walk through the point-of-entry, Customs stations, secondary screening and interview rooms. In addition, U.S. Customs and Border Patrol agents were asked to describe for CAIR representatives various features of the high-risk passenger lookout system.
"In a meeting, Brian Humphrey, Customs and Border Patrol's executive director of field operations, assured CAIR officials that agents do not single out Muslim passengers for special screening and that they must undergo a mandatory course in Muslim sensitivity training. The course teaches agents that Muslims believe jihad is an "internal struggle against sin" and not holy warfare.
"Customs agents involved in the CAIR tour at O'Hare tell WorldNetDaily they were outraged that headquarters would reveal sensitive counterterrorism procedures to an organization that has seen several of its own officials convicted of terror-related charges since 9-11.
"Isn't that nice of CBP," one agent said, to provide a "group like CAIR with a guided, behind-the-scenes tour of our customs facilities, explaining how programs designed to catch Muslim terrorists work."
"CAIR says the tour allayed its concerns about profiling and that it "looks forward to continuing the relationship with U.S. Customs and Border Protection offices in the region, and to furthering understanding between the organizations as well as facilitating future communication in order to eliminate problems for Muslim travelers before they even arise."
Strange, but truley scary.
POSTED BY DOUGLAS FARAH
Monday December 18, 2006
Is South Africa Al Qaeda's New Rearguard?
Intelligence officials in Europe are seeing increasing signs that South Africa, particularly Capetown, is becoming a hub for al Qaeda and other radical Islamist networks in Africa. They said there is growing evidence of al Qaeda operatives traveling through the country, there is some investment in the country and a nascent infrastructure being developed.
The tie is not new in al Qaeda, and several publications have covered some of the incidents that show the growing terrorist ties over time. But with al Qaeda's growing interest in Africa and its growing infrastructure, it is quietly building a rearguard area that can provide several useful facilities, including contacts with organized criminal groups across Africa (Nigeria particularly) and Latin America, and access to banking facilities.
It seems al Qaeda has been running some operatives through South Africa as an R&R location, as well as using the nation as a recruitment center. It also gives great access to much of the rest of Africa, including Tanzania and Kenya, where the previous al Qaeda structure has existed for more than a decade.
It is also in relative proximity to Somalia and the Islamist struggle there, which will almost surely be spilling out into neighboring countries, many also run by corrupt and incompetent governments.
It could be that the new interest in focusing some attention and resources on Africa have made the al Qaeda presence more visible, rather than al Qaeda greatly increasing its presence. But with the growing investment of Islamic banks on the continent, the growing presence of Islamist charities and the growth of the international Muslim Brotherhood it is clear that Africa, and particularly South Africa, are important places to watch closely.
The tie is not new in al Qaeda, and several publications have covered some of the incidents that show the growing terrorist ties over time. But with al Qaeda's growing interest in Africa and its growing infrastructure, it is quietly building a rearguard area that can provide several useful facilities, including contacts with organized criminal groups across Africa (Nigeria particularly) and Latin America, and access to banking facilities.
It seems al Qaeda has been running some operatives through South Africa as an R&R location, as well as using the nation as a recruitment center. It also gives great access to much of the rest of Africa, including Tanzania and Kenya, where the previous al Qaeda structure has existed for more than a decade.
It is also in relative proximity to Somalia and the Islamist struggle there, which will almost surely be spilling out into neighboring countries, many also run by corrupt and incompetent governments.
It could be that the new interest in focusing some attention and resources on Africa have made the al Qaeda presence more visible, rather than al Qaeda greatly increasing its presence. But with the growing investment of Islamic banks on the continent, the growing presence of Islamist charities and the growth of the international Muslim Brotherhood it is clear that Africa, and particularly South Africa, are important places to watch closely.
POSTED BY DOUGLAS FARAH
Monday December 18, 2006
It is Not Social Isolation that Drives Radicalization, But the Mosques
As the Western world again debates the roots of Islamist attacks on Britain and the United States, the question often posed is "Why do they hate us?" The conventional wisdom is that alienated youth, suffering prejudice and unemployment, migrate to suicide bombings to help redress the grievious injuries suffered by uncaring European societies that offer them no way out. Also mentioned are the broader political issues of Palestine, Iraq and recently, Hezbollah.
But the real answer is not so simple or so trite. There are certainly push factors: undoubtedly Northern Africans, Pakistanis and others suffer prejudice and social isolation. Many are angry at geopolitical issues.
The quetions is why the isolation, and that leads to the pull factors, which are just as strong and perhaps more important. The primary pull factor resides in a small number of easily identifiable and identified mosques. Most of the religious institutions are part of the Muslim Brotherhood network. For a more formal look at this, see my paper for the International Strategy and Assessment Center.
What is taught in these mosques, to young people already feeling aggrieved, is not new. They are told that assimilation is wrong and that the more alienated one feels, the closer one is to Allah. Western civilization is degenerate, filthy and full of sin. Rejection of the non-Muslim society in which one lives is a duty, and alienation and hatred a sign of favor from Allah.
Those who are open to this teaching are often then offered special classes and other teaching and opportunities to expand on this concept.
Much of the social isolation surrounding those in these mosques, particularly the UK and the Netherlands, is self imposed. Why integrate or seek to accomodate yourself to the world you live in when alienation is a mark of piety and devotion? How far of a step is it from that to the next logical conclusion? True piety is demonstrated by attacking the oppressive infidel who persecutes Muslims worldwide.
It is time to stop seeing suicide bombers as somehow innocent victims driven by acts of injustice to seek retribution in societies where they are abused. Every society has the stain of prejudice, and it is never right or pretty. But few who feel that way are told that their alienation is Allah's will and that destroying the societies that may have wronged them is the divinely-approved solution.
This teaching is part of a strategy, outlined by the Brotherhood in its own writings, with the aim of establishing the Muslim caliphate across Europe and the rest of the world. This ideology and theology of hatred and alienation is not taught by a few isolated and repudiated imams. It is the core teaching of a major component of political Islam, and shared by wahhabi Islamists and Salafists.
Listening to commentators on cable television since the UK plot was uncovered, it is striking how little the pull factors are discussed, rather than solely the easy to identify push factors that make the killers appear to be victims. The enemy has a pretty clear plan and a solid message. We cannot even define who the enemy is.
But the real answer is not so simple or so trite. There are certainly push factors: undoubtedly Northern Africans, Pakistanis and others suffer prejudice and social isolation. Many are angry at geopolitical issues.
The quetions is why the isolation, and that leads to the pull factors, which are just as strong and perhaps more important. The primary pull factor resides in a small number of easily identifiable and identified mosques. Most of the religious institutions are part of the Muslim Brotherhood network. For a more formal look at this, see my paper for the International Strategy and Assessment Center.
What is taught in these mosques, to young people already feeling aggrieved, is not new. They are told that assimilation is wrong and that the more alienated one feels, the closer one is to Allah. Western civilization is degenerate, filthy and full of sin. Rejection of the non-Muslim society in which one lives is a duty, and alienation and hatred a sign of favor from Allah.
Those who are open to this teaching are often then offered special classes and other teaching and opportunities to expand on this concept.
Much of the social isolation surrounding those in these mosques, particularly the UK and the Netherlands, is self imposed. Why integrate or seek to accomodate yourself to the world you live in when alienation is a mark of piety and devotion? How far of a step is it from that to the next logical conclusion? True piety is demonstrated by attacking the oppressive infidel who persecutes Muslims worldwide.
It is time to stop seeing suicide bombers as somehow innocent victims driven by acts of injustice to seek retribution in societies where they are abused. Every society has the stain of prejudice, and it is never right or pretty. But few who feel that way are told that their alienation is Allah's will and that destroying the societies that may have wronged them is the divinely-approved solution.
This teaching is part of a strategy, outlined by the Brotherhood in its own writings, with the aim of establishing the Muslim caliphate across Europe and the rest of the world. This ideology and theology of hatred and alienation is not taught by a few isolated and repudiated imams. It is the core teaching of a major component of political Islam, and shared by wahhabi Islamists and Salafists.
Listening to commentators on cable television since the UK plot was uncovered, it is striking how little the pull factors are discussed, rather than solely the easy to identify push factors that make the killers appear to be victims. The enemy has a pretty clear plan and a solid message. We cannot even define who the enemy is.
POSTED BY DOUGLAS FARAH