Tuesday December 19, 2006
Can the West Save Africa, and Should It?
There is a thought-provoking op-ed in today's Washington Post on the role of Western aid in "saving" Africa. The author, William Easterly, makes several good points, although I do not share the premise that Africa is not slowly self-destructing. It is valuable to remember the millions of people who are making a difference for good on the continent, and to think about redirecting aid in ways that really matter and make a bigger difference. The rock star and super model tours may have some short-term value, but do little over time to help anyone. It is certainly true that "Economic development in Africa will depend, as it has elsewhere and throughout the history of the modern world, on the success of private - sector entrepreneurs, social entrepreneurs and African political reformers. It will not depend on the activities of patronizing, bureaucratic, unaccountable and poorly informed outsiders."
But the assessment that all we need to do is focus on the good people, I think, is flawed. The avian flu is now moving through northern Nigeria and is likely to spread in an area where there is little infrastructure or education-necessary ingredients to keep the outbreak from becoming a full-blown epidemic. This requires outside help. The HIV/AIDS pandemic, malaria and tubuculosis will not abate in our life times. That being said, from my years in development work and then working around development work, it is clear that there is often a glut of the type of worker described above.
Can private sector entrepreneurs, social entrepreneurs and political reformers work on these issues without outside help and support? Can the rule of law, such as turning Charles Taylor and Hassan Habre over to courts, happen without international assistance? The record so far indicates there is neither the political will nor the strength of incipient civil society to handle any of these questions alone. On the other hand, outside aid has done little over time except enrich and empower some of the worst elements in Africa. There is a balance in there somewhere that would be more beneficial to all. Finding it is the hard part.
But the assessment that all we need to do is focus on the good people, I think, is flawed. The avian flu is now moving through northern Nigeria and is likely to spread in an area where there is little infrastructure or education-necessary ingredients to keep the outbreak from becoming a full-blown epidemic. This requires outside help. The HIV/AIDS pandemic, malaria and tubuculosis will not abate in our life times. That being said, from my years in development work and then working around development work, it is clear that there is often a glut of the type of worker described above.
Can private sector entrepreneurs, social entrepreneurs and political reformers work on these issues without outside help and support? Can the rule of law, such as turning Charles Taylor and Hassan Habre over to courts, happen without international assistance? The record so far indicates there is neither the political will nor the strength of incipient civil society to handle any of these questions alone. On the other hand, outside aid has done little over time except enrich and empower some of the worst elements in Africa. There is a balance in there somewhere that would be more beneficial to all. Finding it is the hard part.
POSTED BY DOUGLAS FARAH
Tuesday December 19, 2006
The Administrtation is Still Oblivious on Taylor
Yesterday the House International Relations subcommittee on Africa held a hearing on Liberia and its long path toward reconstruction. What is truely astonishing is that the lead administration person on Africa, assistant secretary of state Jendayi Frazer, mentioned Charles Taylor exactly twice, in the same paragraph. It was a pro forma statement of interest in getting Taylor handed over for trial. That was it. The other administration officials testifying made no mention of Taylor at all.
This is astounding, given Taylor's continued influence despite his ties to terrorists, transnational criminal groups and crimes against humanity. He wields influence in Liberia through his proxies such as his ex-wife Jewell, House speaker Edwin Snowe, and myriad other criminal associates on the U.S and UN travel ban lists but now holding positions of power in Liberia. The administration made no mention of Taylor's ongoing activities, his past assassination attempts against other West African heads of state or trying to track his wealth stashed abroad.
Fortunately, there were other voices that brought these concerns to the forefront. Rep. Ed Royce R-California, a long-time champion of Africa in general and having Taylor stand trial, fully understands and clearly articulated the role Taylor continues to play.
Here is part of his opening statement, which is far more eloquent and realistic than anything Frazer or other administration officials had to say:
"The new Liberian government's road ahead would be far less treacherous, however, and the futures of the country and West Africa would be far more secure, if the warlord who brought so much destruction to the region was forced to face justice before the Special Court for Sierra Leone, which has indicted Charles Taylor on 17 counts of war crimes and crimes against humanity for his destruction of Sierra Leone.
"Justice demands that Taylor face the Court. I will remind my colleagues of a hearing the Africa Subcommittee held several years ago, when I was its chairman, in which Sierra Leonean boys and girls with amputated hands and arms spoke to us -- victims of Taylor. The Special Court, which is United Nations backed and U.S. financed, is challenging the culture of impunity plaguing West Africa, helping establish critical standards of accountability. It needs to succeed, and it needs Charles Taylor.
There's also a practical reason to send Taylor to the Court. Until he’s tried, he continues to plot in seaside Calabar, Nigeria. Taylor says he'll return to Liberia, and his track record suggests he probably will. To subject Liberians and West Africans to another Taylor nightmare would be unconscionable."
David Crane, the former prosecutor for the Special Court for Sierra Leone, who indicted Taylor on 17 counts of crimes against humanity, also raised the issue forcefully. Here is part of what he said:
"Charles Taylor has been the catalyst of most of the human tragedy and political instability of the region, backed by his compatriots, Col. Muammar Abu Minyar al-QADHAFI of Libya and President Blasé Camporie of Burkina Faso, among other criminal elements.
"That relationship with these two heads of state and the resultant political instability still remains. Overlay Taylor’s continued meddling in the affairs of the region, to include the attempted assassination of President Conte of Guinea in 2005, attest to his determination to do what he promised as he was escorted up the steps of that Nigerian airliner, in August of 2003, with various presidents of several African countries, that he would be back. He meant it then and he means it to this day. He will be back."
So there you have it. Everyone but the Bush administration can see the regional train wreck coming. When it comes, what will Frazer and the other say about Charles Taylor?
This is astounding, given Taylor's continued influence despite his ties to terrorists, transnational criminal groups and crimes against humanity. He wields influence in Liberia through his proxies such as his ex-wife Jewell, House speaker Edwin Snowe, and myriad other criminal associates on the U.S and UN travel ban lists but now holding positions of power in Liberia. The administration made no mention of Taylor's ongoing activities, his past assassination attempts against other West African heads of state or trying to track his wealth stashed abroad.
Fortunately, there were other voices that brought these concerns to the forefront. Rep. Ed Royce R-California, a long-time champion of Africa in general and having Taylor stand trial, fully understands and clearly articulated the role Taylor continues to play.
Here is part of his opening statement, which is far more eloquent and realistic than anything Frazer or other administration officials had to say:
"The new Liberian government's road ahead would be far less treacherous, however, and the futures of the country and West Africa would be far more secure, if the warlord who brought so much destruction to the region was forced to face justice before the Special Court for Sierra Leone, which has indicted Charles Taylor on 17 counts of war crimes and crimes against humanity for his destruction of Sierra Leone.
"Justice demands that Taylor face the Court. I will remind my colleagues of a hearing the Africa Subcommittee held several years ago, when I was its chairman, in which Sierra Leonean boys and girls with amputated hands and arms spoke to us -- victims of Taylor. The Special Court, which is United Nations backed and U.S. financed, is challenging the culture of impunity plaguing West Africa, helping establish critical standards of accountability. It needs to succeed, and it needs Charles Taylor.
There's also a practical reason to send Taylor to the Court. Until he’s tried, he continues to plot in seaside Calabar, Nigeria. Taylor says he'll return to Liberia, and his track record suggests he probably will. To subject Liberians and West Africans to another Taylor nightmare would be unconscionable."
David Crane, the former prosecutor for the Special Court for Sierra Leone, who indicted Taylor on 17 counts of crimes against humanity, also raised the issue forcefully. Here is part of what he said:
"Charles Taylor has been the catalyst of most of the human tragedy and political instability of the region, backed by his compatriots, Col. Muammar Abu Minyar al-QADHAFI of Libya and President Blasé Camporie of Burkina Faso, among other criminal elements.
"That relationship with these two heads of state and the resultant political instability still remains. Overlay Taylor’s continued meddling in the affairs of the region, to include the attempted assassination of President Conte of Guinea in 2005, attest to his determination to do what he promised as he was escorted up the steps of that Nigerian airliner, in August of 2003, with various presidents of several African countries, that he would be back. He meant it then and he means it to this day. He will be back."
So there you have it. Everyone but the Bush administration can see the regional train wreck coming. When it comes, what will Frazer and the other say about Charles Taylor?
POSTED BY DOUGLAS FARAH
Tuesday December 19, 2006
U.S. Designates Libyan al Qaeda Affiliate
The Treasury Department's OFAC designation today of leaders and entities affiliated with the Libyan Islamic Fighting Group (LIFG) is an important step in at least tracking and identifying the leaders of lesser-known al Qaeda affiliates. It will have little real economic impact because the group does not have assets in the United States, but if the measure is extended to the UN, it could make it more difficult for the group to operate.
The LIFG was formed in Afghanistan in 1995, tried to overthrow Moamar Gadaffi in Libya in 1996 and then decamped into exile, largely in Great Britain, when Libyan security forces cracked down. There, the LIFG has served as a part of the hub of organizations that have been facilitating the movement of money, false documents and couriers to al Qaeda affiliates around the world.
One of the most interesting people designated was Abd al-Rahman al-Faqih, a senior leader of the LIFG and one of the chief purveyors of false passports and money to LIFG organizations in different parts of the world. He also appears to be a key link between LIFG and the Moroccan Islamic Combat Group (GICM). The GICM carried out the May 16, 2003 suicide bombings in Casablanca that killed more people and injured more than 100.
Al-Faqih has been tried and found guilty in absentia by the Rabat, Morocco Criminal Court of Appeals for his involvement in those bombings.
As the Treasury statement notes, Al-Faqih has a history of GICM-related activity, notably representing the LIFG during meetings held in Turkey in the late 1990s with GICM. During these meetings, LIFG agreed to host weapons training and jihad indoctrination at LIFG camps in Afghanistan for Moroccans.
The LIFG highlights the simultaneous phenomena of independence and interdependence among the new generation of al Qaeda affiliated groups. While autonomous, they are often in communication and help each other, while at the same time engaging in heated theological and tactical debates. This simultaneous decentralization and increased communication creates an enemy that is more difuse, more adaptable and more specialized, because as one organization can draw on the expertise of others in the network and not have to create all its own specialists.
Britain seems to have been the home to much of the networking that these groups conduct, but that may be changing in the face fo the conviction of Abu Hamza al Masri. The Muslim Brotherhood has also set up new front companies and corporations there. It will be interesting to see how far Britain and other European havens will be willing to go in tracking these groups, and what the next generation of al Qaeda spawn will look like.
The LIFG was formed in Afghanistan in 1995, tried to overthrow Moamar Gadaffi in Libya in 1996 and then decamped into exile, largely in Great Britain, when Libyan security forces cracked down. There, the LIFG has served as a part of the hub of organizations that have been facilitating the movement of money, false documents and couriers to al Qaeda affiliates around the world.
One of the most interesting people designated was Abd al-Rahman al-Faqih, a senior leader of the LIFG and one of the chief purveyors of false passports and money to LIFG organizations in different parts of the world. He also appears to be a key link between LIFG and the Moroccan Islamic Combat Group (GICM). The GICM carried out the May 16, 2003 suicide bombings in Casablanca that killed more people and injured more than 100.
Al-Faqih has been tried and found guilty in absentia by the Rabat, Morocco Criminal Court of Appeals for his involvement in those bombings.
As the Treasury statement notes, Al-Faqih has a history of GICM-related activity, notably representing the LIFG during meetings held in Turkey in the late 1990s with GICM. During these meetings, LIFG agreed to host weapons training and jihad indoctrination at LIFG camps in Afghanistan for Moroccans.
The LIFG highlights the simultaneous phenomena of independence and interdependence among the new generation of al Qaeda affiliated groups. While autonomous, they are often in communication and help each other, while at the same time engaging in heated theological and tactical debates. This simultaneous decentralization and increased communication creates an enemy that is more difuse, more adaptable and more specialized, because as one organization can draw on the expertise of others in the network and not have to create all its own specialists.
Britain seems to have been the home to much of the networking that these groups conduct, but that may be changing in the face fo the conviction of Abu Hamza al Masri. The Muslim Brotherhood has also set up new front companies and corporations there. It will be interesting to see how far Britain and other European havens will be willing to go in tracking these groups, and what the next generation of al Qaeda spawn will look like.
POSTED BY DOUGLAS FARAH
Tuesday December 19, 2006
Nigerian Gangs Spread to Afghanistan in Heroin Trade
A series of recent conversations confirm what a recent UN report (available here) touched on: The growing reach of Nigerian and other sub-Saharan drug trafficking gangs into the heroin trade, particularly the heroin trade in Afghanistan.
While Nigerian gangs have long been invovled in transshipping cocaine and heroin from Latin America to Europe and the United States, and expansion into Afghanistan signals a major expansion of their reach and capabilities. It also signals a new danger for the influx of massive amounts of cash into a region where disaffected armed groups are growing in power and influence while corrupt, incompetent governments continue to crumble and breed contempt. It also intersects with a region of the world where Salafist groups are expanding their appeal, reach, and support for armed conflict.
These groups are not necessarily related, but the history of weak and failing states intersecting with organized crime and terrorist networks makes it reasonable to assume the relationships can and will exist when conditions make such tactical alliances mutually beneficial. And, without intersecting directly, the benefits of chaos and the flow of weapons into the region will not be lost on the Salafists.
This is particularly true in northern tier, from Mali, where the GSPC already maintains training camps, to Sudan, where genocide continues.
The Nigerian gangs are particularly difficult to combat for several reasons: They enjoy official protection at high levels; the operate in languages and dialects that make electronic intercepts of their conversations virtually useless; they rely on kinship networks, making them extremely difficult to penetrate; and they are extremely ruthless, and thus instill a high level of fear in those who know of their activities.
While lip service is now paid to "transnational threats" and nonstate actors, these issues remain largely out of focus of policymakers. When they are focused on, it is often as discreet phenomenas: drug trafficking; weapons trafficking; terrorism, rather than viewing the web as an interconnected web. The Nigerian and other African gangs show just how far these connections are spreading.
While Nigerian gangs have long been invovled in transshipping cocaine and heroin from Latin America to Europe and the United States, and expansion into Afghanistan signals a major expansion of their reach and capabilities. It also signals a new danger for the influx of massive amounts of cash into a region where disaffected armed groups are growing in power and influence while corrupt, incompetent governments continue to crumble and breed contempt. It also intersects with a region of the world where Salafist groups are expanding their appeal, reach, and support for armed conflict.
These groups are not necessarily related, but the history of weak and failing states intersecting with organized crime and terrorist networks makes it reasonable to assume the relationships can and will exist when conditions make such tactical alliances mutually beneficial. And, without intersecting directly, the benefits of chaos and the flow of weapons into the region will not be lost on the Salafists.
This is particularly true in northern tier, from Mali, where the GSPC already maintains training camps, to Sudan, where genocide continues.
The Nigerian gangs are particularly difficult to combat for several reasons: They enjoy official protection at high levels; the operate in languages and dialects that make electronic intercepts of their conversations virtually useless; they rely on kinship networks, making them extremely difficult to penetrate; and they are extremely ruthless, and thus instill a high level of fear in those who know of their activities.
While lip service is now paid to "transnational threats" and nonstate actors, these issues remain largely out of focus of policymakers. When they are focused on, it is often as discreet phenomenas: drug trafficking; weapons trafficking; terrorism, rather than viewing the web as an interconnected web. The Nigerian and other African gangs show just how far these connections are spreading.
POSTED BY DOUGLAS FARAH
Tuesday December 19, 2006
The Intriguing Story of Abdallah Tabarak and Gemstones
There is an intriguing story that I have been following for a while, and carried superbly in today's Washington Post on Adullah Tabarak, Osama bin Laden's bodyguard who was mysteriously released from Guantanamo despite his significant role in al Qaeda. He was also, by his own admission, part of a "gemstone smuggling ring" that al Qaeda operated near Kandahar.
There is much that is strange about Tabarak's situation. He became the "emir" of Guantanamo, respected for taking the heat of bin Laden at Tora Bora by taking the leader's sat phone, making calls and luring away coalition forces, who followed him rather than bin Laden. Tabarak was captured. Bin Laden was not.
While in Guantanamo, Tabarak, according to European intelligence sources, called for hunger strikes that were almost universally obeyed. No one questioned his authority. His status was such that he was not allowed visits by the ICRC out of "military necessity," according to the U.S military.
Then suddenly Tabarak was released to Morocco, where he remains largely free. Why he was released by U.S. officials remains a mystery. Europeann al Qaeda experts are baffled by the move and the feeling that the U.S. community simply did not realize the value of Tabarak when they allowed him to go free.
One of the intriguing passages of Tabarak's testimony refers to his work in a "gemstone smuggling ring" while working in Kandahar. It operated from 1997-2001, exactly matching my stories on the diamond trade.
European intelligence sources said the stones included diamonds, emeralds and other precious stones. In the testimony of Tabarak that I have seen, there are few details, and no follow up questions after his statements on the gemstone operation. But it is interesting that the man who was bin Laden's trusted bodyguard was involved in the operation. Everyone else I identified in the operation were also among the senior leadership of al Qaeda. Hardly the profile of an unimportant operation that many still contend never took place.
There is much that is strange about Tabarak's situation. He became the "emir" of Guantanamo, respected for taking the heat of bin Laden at Tora Bora by taking the leader's sat phone, making calls and luring away coalition forces, who followed him rather than bin Laden. Tabarak was captured. Bin Laden was not.
While in Guantanamo, Tabarak, according to European intelligence sources, called for hunger strikes that were almost universally obeyed. No one questioned his authority. His status was such that he was not allowed visits by the ICRC out of "military necessity," according to the U.S military.
Then suddenly Tabarak was released to Morocco, where he remains largely free. Why he was released by U.S. officials remains a mystery. Europeann al Qaeda experts are baffled by the move and the feeling that the U.S. community simply did not realize the value of Tabarak when they allowed him to go free.
One of the intriguing passages of Tabarak's testimony refers to his work in a "gemstone smuggling ring" while working in Kandahar. It operated from 1997-2001, exactly matching my stories on the diamond trade.
European intelligence sources said the stones included diamonds, emeralds and other precious stones. In the testimony of Tabarak that I have seen, there are few details, and no follow up questions after his statements on the gemstone operation. But it is interesting that the man who was bin Laden's trusted bodyguard was involved in the operation. Everyone else I identified in the operation were also among the senior leadership of al Qaeda. Hardly the profile of an unimportant operation that many still contend never took place.
POSTED BY DOUGLAS FARAH